Analysis of Covid-19

Posted on March 29, 2020 at 1:31 PM

The vast majority of confirmed cases of covid-19 are mild. To interact with this plot, click here

I've provided an interactive data analysis of the covid-19 outbreak containing visualizations and statistics you may not have seen in the mainstream media. Popular visualizations, such as the exponential growth of covid-19, are not shown because they are widely known and shared. The goal of my analysis was to provide information that you can apply towards accessing your own risk as we fight the pandemic.

What are the symptoms of covid-19?

Not suprisingly, fever and cough were experienced by the majority of patients with covid-19 and shortness of breath and dyspnea (difficulty breathing) were seen in severe cases. However, many other symptoms were reported by those who tested positive.

Who is being infected with covid-19?

Short answer - people of all types of ages and backgrounds that come in contact with the virus are in risk of contracting the virus. The most common age group of infection in this study was barely the 50-59 year old age group, followed closely by various other age ranges.

You likely already knew this, and you likely already know that older individuals are more likely to die from the virus than younger people. So a natural question you may be asking yourself is...

What is my individual risk of death?

Age

The death rate for older individuals is significantly higher than younger individuals. Those of us younger than 50 are looking at less than a .5% death death rate compared to individuals over the age of 80, who are facing a roughly 15% death rate. Once again, you probably already knew this trend existed, even if you didn't have a number in mind to quantify it.

Something you might not have considered is how the probability of dying from covid-19 compares to your probability of dying from anything else in the next year. With the exception of individuals under the age of 10, The probability of dying from covid-19 in the span of the two or so weeks you experience symptoms is higher than the probability of dying of anything else in the next year.

To put that into perspective, assume you are the average 50-59 year old and you've tested positive for covid-19. Your probability of death from covid-19 in the next two weeks is roughly 1.3%, compared to your normal risk of dying in one years time of .65%. Your normal risk of dying in two years, therefore, is roughly .65 * 2 = 1.3%. That would imply that covid-19 is the equivalent to jamming two years of risk into a two week period! So, when accessing your risk for covid-19, you should be roughly as afraid as you are of dying from normal causes within two years. However, there's a big caveat: These numbers are only accurate if the medical system isn't overloaded, which is why social distancing is extremely important. If the medical system is overloaded, expect the probability of dying from normal causes within a year to increase.

To help determine your individual risk, consider interacting with the plot above here.

Pre-existing conditions

Individuals with certain pre-existing conditions are at much greater risk than individuals with no pre-existing conditions. Individuals with these pre-existing conditions should exercise great caution as we fight this pandemic.

To be clear, having cardiovascular disease does not mean you have a 10% chance of death. Older individuals are more likely to experience health issues and older individuals are more likely to experience death, which contributes to the higher figure. Still, individuals with existing conditions should still exercise greater caution, as they are likely at more risk, regardless of how much more risk that is.

Bonus Plot

This plot explores how much each age group contributes to the total death toll. The larger the area of the rectangle, the more that group contributes to the overall death toll. Even though individuals 80+ years old have the highest death rate, they are not accounting for the majority of deaths. 30% of all individuals who have died are between the ages of 70-79, 30% are between 60-69, 20% are at least 80 years old, etc.

Closing thoughts

If you are young and have no pre-existing health conditions, it is highly unlikely that you will die from covid-19. If you are not young or you have pre-existing health conditions, it is still unlikely that you will die from covid-19, but you should exercise great caution nonetheless.

You may be asking yourself, "I'm young and healthy, so does that mean I don't have to social distance?" and the answer to that question is no. A selfless reason is that other people are at risk and you can still transmit the virus to them. A selfish reason is that, by ignoring social distancing recommendations, you will contribute to a higher growth rate for the virus, which will overload hospitals. If hospitals are overloaded, your probability of dying from "normal" causes will increase greatly. There are other reasons as well, and I encourage you to research them.

I hope you found this informative. Stay healthy and keep social distancing!